Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed—If the Fed Helps, Says Grayscale
DECRYPT ·
Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl published a Wednesday note arguing Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, conditional on the Fed holding off further rate hikes. The firm rejects the traditional four-year cycle framework—which would predict a bottom in September or October with an average 80% drawdown—in favor of viewing Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset. The Fed meets July 29, and the Clarity Act faces an August 7 Senate deadline, with both events framed by Grayscale as the main price catalysts for Bitcoin in coming weeks. Crypto asset manager Grayscale published a note Wednesday with a headline argument: Bitcoin's bear market may already be over—if the Federal Reserve doesn't raise rates. The firm’s head of research, Zach Pandl, essentially laid out what he views as two competing narratives that potentially explain the state of the Bitcoin market today. The first, which he dismisses, is the “four-year cycle” view. “Believers in the ‘four-year cycle’ theory see Bitcoin halving events as the key driver of price movements and expect the current bear market to play out like those in the past, he wrote. The Bitcoin halving is an event baked into Bitcoin’s code that slices mining rewards in half, essentially slowing the cryptocurrency’s rate of inflation, approximately every four years.
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