JPMorgan (JPM) Stock Still Looks Cheap As Its 141% Run Continues

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JPMorgan (JPM) Stock Still Looks Cheap As Its 141% Run Continues Bailey Pemberton Tue, June 30, 2026 at 10:09 PM EDT 4 min read JPM Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St's easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge. JPMorgan Chase stock has returned about 141% over the past five years, yet the latest Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate suggests the shares may still trade at a discount even as broader valuation checks flag that the stock is not a clear bargain. A roughly 141% five year gain can make JPMorgan Chase look fully priced at first glance, which raises the question of how much upside is left after such a strong run. Strong recent earnings momentum and planned capital returns through dividends and buybacks can support the current valuation, while management warnings about a potentially severe credit cycle highlight that loan losses and asset quality remain a key risk for how the stock is priced. With JPMorgan Chase scoring 2 out of 6 on our valuation checks , the broader picture leans on the expensive side rather than pointing to a straightforward bargain. For investors, the debate is whether JPMorgan Chase's current share price already reflects its earnings strength and capital return plans, or whether the intrinsic value estimate still leaves a reasonable margin of safety. Find out why JPMorgan Chase's 14.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. The Excess Returns model evaluates what JPMorgan Chase can earn on its equity above the required return that shareholders demand. For JPMorgan Chase, the setup is based on a book value of $128.38 per share and an estimated stable earnings power of $24.76 per share. This implies an average Return on Equity of 17.05% supported by analyst forecasts. With the cost of equity at $11.63 per share, the model estimates an excess return of $13.12 per share on a stable book value that is projected to reach $145.22 per share. Using these inputs, the Excess Returns model arrives at an intrinsic value of $438.73 per share. This compares to a current share price that implies the stock trades about 25.4% below this estimate, so it screens as undervalued within this framework. The recently announced $50 billion buyback and higher dividend, following the latest Fed stress test, are cited in the model as factors that help explain why the Excess Returns valuation indicates more value in the equity than the market price reflects. On this model, JPMorgan Chase stock currently appears undervalued relative to its estimated earnings power on equity. Our Excess Returns analysis suggests JPMorgan Chase is undervalued by 25.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio , or discover 43 more high quality undervalued stocks . Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for JPMorgan Chase. The P/E ratio is a useful way to look at JPMorgan Chase because earnings are a core driver of how bank stocks are typically priced. Right now, JPMorgan Chase trades at about 15.3x earnings, compared with a Banks sector average of roughly 12.3x and a peer group average of 14.1x, so the stock sits at a premium to the wider industry and only a modest premium to closer peers. The fair P/E ratio implied by the valuation framework is 14.8x, only slightly below the current 15.3x, which suggests the market is broadly in line with what its earnings profile, size and risk mix might justify. Even after strong recent results and increased capital returns, JPMorgan Chase does not screen as either a clear bargain or an obvious outlier on this earnings multiple. Overall, JPMorgan Chase looks roughly fairly valued on the P/E multiple compared with both its own fair ratio and the broader banking sector. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where JPMorgan Chase's valuation puzzle leaves off by spelling out which assumptions about JPMorgan Chase's future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth significantly more or less than today, and they sit on the company's Community page. Rather than relying on a single multiple or model output, each narrative lays out the key drivers behind its fair value so you can compare those assumptions with actual results over time. Community views on JPMorgan Chase are split between a bullish digital and AI expansion story and a more cautious focus on credit and cost pressures. "The firm's first-mover advantage in tokenized deposits, stablecoins, and blockchain-based payments creates the foundation for new high-margin revenue streams and fintech partnerships…" Read the full Bull Case to see why JPMorgan Chase could be undervalued "JPMorgan Chase's increase in allowance for credit losses to $27.6 billion, driven by heightened downside risks and elevated weighted average unemployment rate projections, suggests challenges ahead…" Read the full Bear Case to see why JPMorgan Chase could be overvalued Do you think there's more to the story for JPMorgan Chase? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! For JPMorgan Chase, the Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate points to undervaluation, while the P/E view says the stock is priced roughly in line with peers and its own fair multiple. That gap reflects different focus points. The intrinsic model hinges on sustained excess returns on equity, while the market multiple is more influenced by current sentiment and earnings expectations. Broader valuation checks remain weak, so the key question is whether JPMorgan Chase can keep converting its scale and capital strength into durable returns on equity without a materially tougher credit cycle eroding that thesis. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include JPM . Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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