Stock Market Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. History Says a Big Drop Could Follow.
Yahoo Finance ·
The U.S. stock market has performed well in the past year, in large part because of enthusiasm surrounding the artificial intelligence trade. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC +0.79% ) and Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC +1.52% ) are up 20% and 27%, respectively, since June 2025. But investors recently got some bad news from the Federal Reserve. Fed officials now anticipate at least one interest rate increase in 2026. That would mark the beginning of the fifth rate-increase cycle since 1999, and the last four cycles generally coincided with bear markets. In December, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range on its benchmark interest rate to 3.5% to 3.75%, representing a quarter-point reduction. At the time, the market anticipated at least two more quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, according to CME Group 's FedWatch tool. But investors' expectations have changed because of the recent acceleration in inflation . "The most natural path for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is to delay further cuts until the effects of tariffs, higher oil prices and other effects of the war in the Middle East, and the effects of artificial intelligence demand have faded," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in early June.
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