SpaceX Is Set to Join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Here's Where History Says the Stock Could Trade 1 Year From Now.
Yahoo Finance ·
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX +2.83% ) is scheduled to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market capitalization. For SpaceX, inclusion in the index represents a significant step toward mainstream recognition beyond technology investors. With that said, history shows that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 rarely serves as an independent driver of sustained outperformance. The anticipation of inclusion in a major index tends to amplify trading volume and expand valuation multiples as momentum traders and growth funds pile in ahead of the official rebalancing date. Let's take a look at what happened with the share prices of some companies that joined the Nasdaq-100 in recent years. Peloton Interactive was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2020. Leading up to its inclusion in the index, Peloton saw its shares surge nearly 400% as the COVID-19 pandemic supercharged demand for at-home fitness equipment. Shortly after joining the index, Peloton reached an all-time price of $167. But within about 13 months, Peloton had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 and the stock had fallen roughly 83% from its peak as pandemic tailwinds faded. Also in 2020, Okta experienced meaningful appreciation in its share price as demand for cloud-based identity and access management solutions surged amid the rapid shift to remote work. By early 2021, Okta stock had climbed to an all-time high shortly after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. In a post-pandemic world, however, Okta's growth rates have normalized substantially. As a result, the stock has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading for years now. In December 2024, Strategy , formerly known as MicroStrategy, joined the Nasdaq-100. During this calendar year, the stock gained 358%, driven primarily by the company's high-profile Bitcoin treasury strategy . After peaking near the time of its late-2024 addition to the index, Strategy stock declined 68% by the end of 2025 amid shifting sentiment toward crypto proxies and Bitcoin's volatile price action. Palantir Technologies also joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. During that year, the artificial intelligence (AI) analytics darling posted a 340% return. Palantir stock continued to rally through much of 2025, supported by its strong business fundamentals. However, by mid-2026, shares have pulled back sharply from their late 2025 highs -- illustrating how even fundamentally sound companies will experience volatility once an initial wave of buying subsides. Axon Enterprise also posted robust gains throughout 2024 as law enforcement and public safety agencies adopted its AI-enhanced hardware platform. After joining the index in December 2024, Axon -- like Palantir -- maintained upward share price momentum during 2025, yet has experienced notable pullbacks from its peaks this year. The common thread across these examples is that temporary inflows provide a one-time lift rather than a permanent valuation floor. A company's subsequent performance hinges on whether the underlying business consistently delivers impressive execution and guidance once the spotlight of index membership moves elsewhere.
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