NVIDIA stock gains as SemiAnalysis sees H2 data center revenue 20% above consensus

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NVIDIA stock gains as SemiAnalysis sees H2 data center revenue 20% above consensus Frank DeMatteo Tue, June 30, 2026 at 12:51 PM EDT 3 min read NVDA Investing.com -- After a rough month, which saw its stock slide over 11%, AI chip giant NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is seeing signs of life on the last day of the quarter following bullish comments from independent semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis. Shares are trading up 1.7% at noon New York Time. SemiAnalysis projected that NVIDIA's data center computing revenue in the second half of fiscal year 2027 will run 20% above Wall Street consensus estimates, citing a cleared supply bottleneck and an accelerating ramp of its Vera Rubin platform. NVDA shares are currently trading at $198.37, up 1.74% intraday, with the SemiAnalysis note appearing as a key catalyst for the move. Posting on X on June 30, SemiAnalysis wrote: "We are seeing a huge second half ramp for Nvidia this year. Our Accelerator Model estimate has Nvidia DC compute revenue 20% higher compared to consensus expectations for 2H FY2027. Rubin will have a big ramp after being pushed out due to earlier HBM4 issues that are now resolved and front end wafer supply is now built up. Unlike other sell-side analysts who like to model an easy benchmark for companies to beat numbers, SemiAnalysis estimates are informed by all the research from the supply chain — including but not limited to materials, fabrication, components, server integrators — all the way to what's happening at hyperscalers and frontier labs." The crux of the bullish thesis is the resolution of an HBM4 memory supply constraint that had previously delayed mass shipments of the Rubin platform. With that bottleneck cleared and front-end wafer inventory now pre-built, SemiAnalysis expects a sharp volume step-up in the back half of the year. That view is corroborated by Digitimes, which reported on June 25 that supply-chain vendors it tracks see the Blackwell-to-Rubin product transition completing in Q2 2026, setting up an acceleration in demand from Q3 onward. NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform entered full production on June 1, 2026, and production shipments are scheduled for this fall to eight cloud partners: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Nscale, according to reporting by TechTimes. The platform's HBM4 memory delivers approximately 22 TB/s bandwidth per GPU, triple the HBM3e bandwidth found in the Blackwell generation, giving hyperscalers a meaningful performance-per-token improvement. SemiAnalysis did not deliver an entirely unclouded picture. The firm also flagged that NVIDIA's original four-chip Rubin Ultra configuration, unveiled at GTC 2026, was canceled roughly three months after its announcement and replaced with a version half the original physical size, with performance scaled down proportionally. NVIDIA has not publicly commented on the design change, and the long-term revenue impact of the downgrade relative to the original specification remains unclear. The SemiAnalysis projection, if accurate, would represent a significant positive revision to the setup heading into Q2 FY2027 earnings, tentatively scheduled for August 26, 2026. Consensus currently models EPS of $2.07 on revenue of roughly $91.7 billion for that quarter; SemiAnalysis's supply-chain read suggests that bar could prove too conservative. As Claude disrupts stock market, Anthropic researcher warns 'world is in peril' Wolfe Research outlines eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026

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