Stifel cuts Microsoft target, says Street FY27 gross margin estimates are too high
Yahoo Finance ·
Stifel cuts Microsoft target, says Street FY27 gross margin estimates are too high Sam Boughedda Thu, June 25, 2026 at 11:05 AM EDT 1 min read SF MSFT Investing.com -- Stifel has cut its price target on Microsoft to $400, warning that Wall Street's fiscal year 2027 gross margin estimates fail to capture the drag from Azure's rapid growth and compressing cloud margins driven by accelerating capital expenditure. In a note by analyst Brad Reback, Stifel models fiscal 2027 gross margins compressing approximately 450 basis points year-over-year to around 63%, which is "over 300 basis points below the 66.5% consensus." The bank flagged that even in a scenario where Azure gross margins remain stable at fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 levels of approximately 47.5%, which it described as "highly unlikely given ongoing capex growth," fiscal 2027 gross margins would still decline around 300 basis points year-over-year. The core issue, Stifel believes, is a revenue mix shift toward Azure, which is "growing approximately three times faster than the rest of the business," combined with ongoing Azure gross margin compression of 100 to 150 basis points quarter-over-quarter through fiscal 2027. Stifel also noted that, unlike Oracle, which guided absolute dollar operating expenses lower year-over-year, Microsoft has guided to mid-to-upper single-digit operating expense growth "given ongoing R&D investments," limiting the offset from cost efficiencies. On the bottom line, Stifel stated that Street fiscal 2027 EPS estimates of approximately $19.45 "could be around $1.00 too high," with growing finance lease obligations adding further drag on earnings per share growth despite management's expected maintenance of double-digit operating income growth guidance. JPMorgan outlines ten strategic themes that could shape the outlook for 2026 5 reasons why Jefferies thinks Meta's pullback is a buying opportunity
AI 시장 분석
Stifel cut its price target on Microsoft (MSFT) to $400 and judged Wall Street's FY27 gross margin consensus (66.5%) to be overstated. The firm expects FY27 gross margin to shrink by roughly 450bp year-over-year to about 63%, citing a faster revenue mix shift toward Azure and accelerated CAPEX that will pressure margins. Microsoft is keeping operating expense guidance at mid-to-up levels driven by R&D investment, making it difficult to offset pressures through cost reductions, and warned that Street's EPS $19.45 estimate may be overstated by about $1. As a result, MSFT shares and cloud/software valuations face downside pressure, while infrastructure suppliers such as data center equipment and semiconductors could see demand-expansion opportunities.
상승 영향
- Data center equipment/infrastructure — Accelerated Azure CAPEX will materially increase demand for servers, storage and networking equipment, expanding revenue and orders for equipment suppliers.
- Semiconductors (especially GPUs/AI accel — Large-scale cloud AI and computing investments should boost demand for GPUs and AI accelerators, improving semiconductor vendors' results and pricing power.
- Data center REITs/operators — Azure expansion increases needs for facilities, power and cooling, raising demand for data center leases and operations services and potentially improving REITs' and operators' profitability.
하락 영향
- Microsoft (large software/cloud) — A higher Azure mix and sustained margin pressure increase downside risk to FY27 gross margin and EPS, exerting direct downward pressure on MSFT shares.
- Public cloud services — Higher CAPEX and pricing competition could intensify margin pressure across AWS, GCP and other public cloud providers, negatively impacting industry-wide profitability.
- Big tech and software valuations — Revisions to Street's overly optimistic earnings expectations could trigger multiple re-ratings among comparables, leading to downward pressure on valuations for big tech and high-valuation software names.
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