Intel Costs 62 Times Next Year's Earnings. It Lost $11 Billion Over the Past Year.

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Intel ( INTC +0.97% ) carries one of the stranger price tags in the market right now. The chipmaker's net loss over the past year comes to about $11.3 billion. Its stock, meanwhile, trades at about $105 as of this writing, up more than 350% from its 52-week low of $22.78. And it costs about 62 times what the company is expected to earn on an adjusted basis over the year ahead. A company losing billions doesn't usually command a $550 billion market value and a premium growth multiple at the same time. The market has decided Intel's losses aren't what they appear, and on that point, I think the market is right. Whether the stock is worth that price is a different matter.

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Despite recording a net loss of $11.3 billion over the past year, Intel's (INTC) stock has surged over 350% from its 52-week low, reaching $105. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on expected adjusted earnings stands at 62x, with a market capitalization exceeding $550 billion. While the market views the current massive deficit as temporary, extreme overvaluation controversies are difficult to avoid.

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Intel's soaring stock price is the result of future earnings improvement expectations being priced in despite the apparent massive net loss ($11.3 billion). A high multiple such as a forward P/E of 62x can only be justified if future tailwinds, such as the turnaround of the foundry business and government subsidies, translate into actual profits.

The bullish scenario involves achieving guidance through restructuring success and the stabilization of advanced processes, while the bearish scenario is a valuation collapse driven by prolonged sluggish performance. Investors must closely monitor quarterly net income trends and indicators of foundry client acquisition.

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