Jefferies sees downside risk for Tesla stock, warns of SpaceX tracker risk
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Jefferies sees downside risk for Tesla stock, warns of SpaceX tracker risk Senad Karaahmetovic Mon, June 22, 2026 at 4:08 AM CDT 1 min read TSLA SPCX JEF Investing.com - Jefferies has trimmed its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $375 and flagged a new structural risk for the stock: that growing market consensus around a Tesla-SpaceX merger could effectively transform TSLA shares into a de facto SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) tracking stock. Examining the evolving relationship between Tesla and SpaceX following the blockbuster SPCX IPO, Jefferies noted that while Tesla shares did not sell off ahead of the IPO, "consensus that a merger will be next and soon may turn TSLA into a tracker as shareholders try to minimize stake dilution." If the merger narrative takes hold and TSLA effectively begins trading as a proxy for SpaceX's fortunes, its price discovery would become increasingly untethered from Tesla's own operating fundamentals. The new price target sees around 6% downside risk from current levels. Jefferies characterizes the current setup bluntly: "Valuation & estimates remain disconnected," a tension the firm sees as unlikely to resolve cleanly in either direction near term. The brokerage firm projects below-consensus results for those years, built on the assumption that launching robotaxis and humanoid robots will initially generate losses rather than profits. As Jefferies put it, the firm is "assuming launching robotaxis & humanoids will initially create loss centres" — a materially more cautious read than the revenue acceleration that much of Wall Street's optimism currently rests on. Much of Tesla's premium valuation relative to traditional automakers has been justified by the expectation that robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses will eventually deliver outsized, high-margin revenue streams. Jefferies does not dispute that long-term potential, but argues the market is skipping over the near-term investment phase and the losses that will accompany it. Jefferies sees downside risk for Tesla stock, warns of SpaceX tracker risk These 2 stocks are best positioned to benefit from higher uranium prices: analyst 5 reasons why Jefferies thinks Meta's pullback is a buying opportunity
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Jefferies cut its price target on Tesla (TSLA) and warned that market expectations of a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX) could create a new structural risk that makes Tesla's share price behave like a proxy for SpaceX. It also pointed to the potential for early losses in the robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses, maintaining a conservative view on Tesla's valuation and earnings outlook.
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- Electric Vehicles — Tesla's share price risks becoming effectively a SpaceX-following stock due to merger expectations with SpaceX (SPCX), which could disconnect pricing from Tesla's own fundamentals and exert downward pressure.
- AI — Expected early losses in the robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses could clash with market optimism that underpins Tesla's premium valuation, negatively affecting the stock.
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