How Much Could $1,000 Invested in Viking Therapeutics Be Worth by 2030?
Yahoo Finance ·
Viking Therapeutics ( VKTX 0.11% ) is a challenger in the obesity drugs gold rush, trailing Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as they rake in cash from their highly successful medicines. Viking's lead candidate, VK2735, has shown in mid-stage clinical trials that it can take real weight off, but even good clinical data is a long way from owning market share, and Viking may never make that crossing. So, how much would a $1,000 investment in the company today grow into by 2030 if VK2735 wins approval, and how much could evaporate if it falters? By 2030, the weight loss drugs market could be worth around $95 billion, per an estimate from Goldman Sachs . J.P. Morgan estimates the broader market for GLP-1 medicines, which includes diabetes treatments, at nearly $200 billion by the same year. Let's go with a $150 billion figure, a rough midpoint of those ranges, as our starting point for forecasting what a $1,000 investment in Viking would do. The scenario here is that VK2735, sold as both a weekly shot and a daily pill, could capture 1% of the market. We calculate that 1% of $150 billion is $1.5 billion in annual sales. With a rich valuation multiple on those sales, say with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 10, the company would be worth around $15 billion; it's worth $4.4 billion today, so in this case, a $1,000 investment would grow to reach somewhere in the ballpark of $3,400.
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