Should You 'Buy' or 'Sell' Tesla Stock Before July 2
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Should You 'Buy' or 'Sell' Tesla Stock Before July 2 Nauman Khan Tue, June 30, 2026 at 3:47 PM EDT 2 min read TSLA This article first appeared on GuruFocus . Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is closing in on its second-quarter delivery numbers, which are projected to come due on July 2. Two forecasts among competing estimates are on the radar, according to data Bloomberg compiled and posted on Tesla's investor relations website. The consensus estimate from Bloomberg projects around 396,500 cars, and Tesla itself cited 22 sell-side analysts in its estimate, averaging 406,000. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with TSLA. Is TSLA fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Four Wall Street companies are predicting that Tesla will be higher on both lists. Goldman Sachs has forecast another 420,000 units; Barclays has forecast 418,000; and Morgan Stanley has recently increased its forecast to around 413,000, citing improving demand in China and European registrations more than doubling in May. The U.S. sales outlook, however, is expected to drop around 20% YoY in Cox Automotive estimates, since the federal $7,500 tax credit on EVs ended at the end of Q3 2025. Tesla will also have to prove that it is implementing an inventory overhang. Production for the first quarter stands at 408,386 vehicles, deliveries 358,023, with an in-the-pipeline count of about 50,000. That would result in nearly 5.7% growth from 384,122 cars delivered in Q2 2025, to help achieve the Tesla-compiled consensus. While everyone is watching deliveries now, aren't they? Elon Musk has stated that the manufacturing of the Optimus robots will start in July, and the next-generation humanoid robot will enter the market later this year. There are also investors hoping to get new developments in Tesla's plans to launch robotaxi services and evidence of improving margins in respective sectors in the auto sector in a series of difficult quarters. Assuming he achieves all three, Tesla has three big catalysts in July: even better EV deliveries, some significant AI/robotics announcements and better profits. If the company delivers on those fronts, Tesla stock could extend its rally. When results are just as expected or just below Wall Street expectations, investors might be tempted to take a walk on the wild side.
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