The Global Market for Computing and AI for Data Centers Report 2026–2040: Evaluating GPUs, Custom ASICs, Arm vs x86, and Strategies of Nvidia, AMD, Google, and AWS

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The Global Market for Computing and AI for Data Centers Report 2026–2040: Evaluating GPUs, Custom ASICs, Arm vs x86, and Strategies of Nvidia, AMD, Google, and AWS Research and Markets Mon, August 17, 2026 at 7:16 AM EDT 11 min read Expanding from a market valued at $215 billion in 2025, the sector is undergoing structural transformation as merchant GPU leaders (Nvidia, AMD) compete and collaborate with hyperscalers deploying proprietary custom ASICs (Google TPU, AWS Trainium/Inferentia, Microsoft Maia, Meta MTIA) and Arm-based CPUs (AWS Graviton, Google Axion, Nvidia Grace/Vera). This 490-page report delivers a comprehensive 15-year evaluation across processor architectures, silicon manufacturing node roadmaps, server tray deployments, wafer consumption, and strategic profiling across 81 major industry organizations. Dublin, Aug. 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- "The Global Market for Computing and AI for Data Centers 2026-2040" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. The global market for computing and artificial intelligence in data centers represents one of the most dynamic and capital-intensive segments of the semiconductor industry. Driven by the rapid proliferation of generative AI, large language models, and agentic AI systems, demand for specialised data center processors - encompassing GPUs, AI ASICs, CPUs, and FPGAs - has entered a period of extraordinary and sustained growth. From a market valued at approximately $215 billion in 2025, the sector is projected to scale dramatically through 2040, as hyperscalers, cloud providers, and enterprises race to build the compute infrastructure required to train, fine-tune, and serve increasingly powerful AI models. At the core of this expansion is the GPU, which remains the dominant processor architecture for AI workloads due to its unmatched parallel processing capability and mature software ecosystem. Nvidia continues to hold an overwhelming share of this segment, with successive generations - from Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin and beyond - each delivering step-change improvements in compute density, memory bandwidth, and energy efficiency. AMD provides meaningful competition with its MI-series accelerators, while the broader landscape is being reshaped by hyperscalers developing their own custom silicon to reduce dependency on merchant chip vendors and lower total cost of ownership. AI ASICs represent the fastest-growing processor category, as companies including Google, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Meta invest heavily in purpose-built chips optimised for specific workloads such as inference, recommendation, and training. These internally developed accelerators - including Google's TPU series, AWS Trainium and Inferentia, Microsoft MAIA, and Meta's MTIA - are increasingly displacing third-party GPUs for certain use cases, fundamentally altering the competitive dynamics of the market and creating a parallel ecosystem of chip co-designers and advanced packaging specialists. The server CPU market, though more mature, continues to evolve rapidly. Intel and AMD maintain leading positions with their x86 architectures, but face mounting pressure from Arm-based alternatives championed by hyperscalers such as AWS with Graviton, Google with Axion, Microsoft with Cobalt, and Nvidia with Grace and Vera. RISC-V is also emerging as a credible contender for specific workloads, particularly as open-source hardware ecosystems mature. Meanwhile, FPGAs continue to serve niche roles in low-latency and specialised inference applications. Underpinning all of this is a complex and increasingly strained supply chain. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing is concentrated at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel Foundry, with leading-edge nodes below 5nm commanding the majority of AI chip demand. High Bandwidth Memory, supplied primarily by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, has emerged as a critical bottleneck, while advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS are operating at near-full capacity. Hyperscaler capital expenditure continues to flow into data centre construction, power infrastructure, and silicon procurement at a scale that is reshaping global semiconductor supply chains. Geopolitics adds a further layer of complexity. US export controls on advanced AI chips have accelerated China's drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency, with domestic players such as Huawei HiSilicon, Cambricon, Biren, and Hygon developing increasingly capable alternatives. The bifurcation of the global AI compute market into US-aligned and China-domestic supply chains is one of the defining structural trends of the decade, with profound implications for technology strategy, investment allocation, and national industrial policy. The Global Market for Computing and AI for Data Centers 2026-2040 is a comprehensive strategic intelligence report covering the full landscape of data centre processor technology, market dynamics, competitive positioning, and long-range forecasting through to 2040. Produced for technology executives, semiconductor investors, strategic planners, and policy analysts, the report provides the depth of quantitative rigour and qualitative insight required to navigate one of the most rapidly evolving markets in the global economy. The report opens with a set of preliminary materials including a detailed glossary of technical terms and abbreviations, a clear articulation of research objectives and scope, biographical profiles of the authoring team, and a candid retrospective on previous forecast accuracy. This is followed by a three-page summary and a full executive summary designed for senior readers who require rapid orientation to the report's key findings without sacrificing analytical depth. Chapter one establishes the macroeconomic and geopolitical context, examining global AI infrastructure investment trends, hyperscaler capital expenditure trajectories for both US and Chinese players, the evolving regulatory landscape including US export controls, and the widening technology divide between Western and Chinese semiconductor ecosystems. Chapter two forms the quantitative heart of the report, delivering granular market forecasts from 2021 to 2040 across all major processor categories. Revenue, average selling price, unit volume, wafer consumption, and server tray forecasts are provided at the vendor, product, and technology node level, enabling readers to build detailed bottom-up views of market opportunity and competitive exposure. Separate analytical lenses are provided for CPU, GPU, and AI ASIC dynamics, including HBM-driven revenue disaggregation and compute die forecasting. Chapter three addresses the market forces shaping demand, including the falling cost of generative AI inference and training, the emergence of agentic and physical AI, the compute demands of recommendation engines and coding assistants, the competition between LLMs and traditional search, and broader questions around the CapEx and OpEx economics of AI infrastructure. An exploratory section examines the longer-term possibility of space-based data center architectures. Chapter four maps the competitive landscape in detail, providing ecosystem maps for both the data center processor supply chain and the foundation model developer community. It includes financial benchmarking of leading chip designers, a deep-dive case study on OpenAI's revenue and compute trajectory, comprehensive market share analysis, and a dedicated section on Mainland China covering domestic market sizing, hyperscaler demand, manufacturer profiles, and supply chain structure. Chapter five delivers an authoritative review of technology trends across all processor categories, covering process node roadmaps, chiplet architectures, rack-scale system designs, memory and packaging technology, and emerging computing paradigms including photonics, neuromorphic, and quantum computing. Unique assets include a full AI ASIC technology specification database and a start-up landscape analysis. The report concludes with a forward-looking outlook chapter presenting bull, base, and bear case scenarios for the market through 2031 and beyond to 2040, a comprehensive risk register, and strategic recommendations. An extensive company profiles section - covering 81 organisations with one dedicated page per company - rounds out the report, providing standardised strategic and financial snapshots of every major player in the ecosystem. Report Contents include: Global AI infrastructure and investment landscape US and Chinese hyperscaler CapEx trends and projections AI regulatory landscape and export controls Total data centre processor revenue forecast GPU, AI ASIC, CPU and FPGA revenue forecasts Average selling price (ASP) forecasts by vendor and product tier Wafer starts by technology node and foundry (TSMC, Samsung, Intel Foundry) Dedicated CPU focus and GPU/AI ASIC focus sections Cost of generative AI inference and training Recommendation models for social networks The future of space-based AI data centres Financial metrics of data center chip designers Case study: OpenAI revenue and gigawatt forecast Market share analysis - CPU, GPU, AI ASIC, XPU co-designers Mainland China focus: market size, hyperscaler demand, manufacturer profiles, supply chain CPU: x86, Arm, RISC-V, workload specialisation GPU: process nodes, chiplets, rack-scale architecture, HBM integration, interconnects AI ASIC: hyperscaler roadmaps, start-up landscape, specification database, disaggregated inference Advanced packaging and HBM (HBM2E through HBM4), CoWoS, AI rack bill of materials Emerging computing: photonics, neuromorphic, quantum Market outlook 2026-2040 with bull/base/bear scenarios Key Topics Covered: CHAPTER 1 - CONTEXT 1.1 Global AI Infrastructure and Investment Landscape 1.2 US and Chinese Hyperscaler CapEx Trends and Projections 1.3 AI Regulatory Landscape and Export Controls 1.4 The US-China Technology Divide CHAPTER 2 - MARKET FORECASTS 2.1 Processor Revenue Forecast 2.1.1 Total Data Center Processor Market, 2021-2040 ($B) 2.1.2 GPU Revenue Forecast, 2021-2040 ($B) 2.1.3 AI ASIC Revenue Forecast, 2021-2040 ($B) 2.1.4 Server CPU Revenue Forecast, 2021-2040 ($B) 2.1.5 FPGA Data Center Revenue Forecast, 2021-2040 ($M) 2.2 Average Selling Price (ASP) Forecast 2.2.1 GPU ASP Trends by Product Tier, 2021-2040 ($K) 2.2.2 AI ASIC ASP Trends by Hyperscaler, 2021-2040 ($K) 2.2.3 CPU ASP Trends - Intel Xeon vs. AMD EPYC, 2021-2040 2.3 Processor Volume Forecast 2.3.1 GPU Unit Shipments by Vendor, 2021-2040 (K units) 2.3.2 AI ASIC Unit Shipments by Hyperscaler, 2021-2040 (K units) 2.3.3 CPU Unit Shipments by Vendor, 2021-2040 (M units) 2.4 Wafer Forecast 2.4.1 GPU & AI ASIC Wafer Starts by Technology Node, 2021-2040 2.4.2 Wafer Starts by Foundry (TSMC, Samsung, Intel Foundry) 2.4.3 GPU & AI ASIC Compute Die Forecast, 2021-2040 2.4.4 HBM-Driven Revenue Separation from GPU & AI ASIC 2.5 Server Tray Volume Forecast 2.6 CPU Focus 2.7 GPU & AI ASIC Focus CHAPTER 3 - MARKET TRENDS 3.1 Cost of Generative AI Inference and Training 3.2 From Agentic AI to Physical AI 3.3 Recommendation Models for Social Networks 3.4 Coding Assistants 3.5 Search Engine vs. LLM 3.6 OpenClaw 3.7 CapEx vs. OpEx in the Era of Generative AI 3.8 Is the Future of AI Data Centers in Space? CHAPTER 4 - MARKET SHARE & SUPPLY CHAIN 4.1 Data Center Ecosystem Map 4.2 Foundation Models Ecosystem Map 4.3 U.S. vs. China Tech War - Timeline 4.4 Financial Metrics of Data Center Chip Designers 4.5 Case Study: OpenAI Revenue and Gigawatt 4.6 Market Share: CPU, GPU, AI ASIC & XPU Co-Designers 4.6.1 GPU Market Share by Revenue and Units 4.6.2 AI ASIC Market Share by Hyperscaler 4.6.3 CPU Market Share by Vendor 4.6.4 XPU Co-Designer Revenue Market Share 4.7 Focus on Mainland China 4.7.1 Chinese DC Processor Market Size & Forecast 4.7.2 Chinese Hyperscaler Processor Demand 4.7.3 Chinese Processor Manufacturer Profiles & Roadmaps 4.7.4 China DC Processor Supply Chain CHAPTER 5 - TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 5.1 CPU Technology Trends 5.1.1 x86 Architecture Evolution 5.1.2 Arm-Based CPU Momentum in the Data Center 5.1.3 RISC-V in the Data Center 5.1.4 CPU Specialisation for AI Workloads 5.2 GPU Technology Trends 5.2.1 Process Node Roadmap and Transition 5.2.2 Chiplet and Multi-Die Architectures 5.2.3 Rack-Scale GPU Architectures (NVL72 and Beyond) 5.2.4 Memory Bandwidth and HBM Integration 5.2.5 Networking and Interconnect Evolution 5.3 AI ASIC Technology Trends 5.3.1 Hyperscaler ASIC Product Roadmaps 5.3.2 AI ASIC Start-Up Landscape 5.3.3 AI ASIC Technology Specification Database 5.3.4 Compute Disaggregation for AI Inference 5.4 GPU vs. AI ASIC: Comparative Analysis 5.5 Advanced Packaging and HBM Memory 5.5.1 HBM Technology Roadmap (HBM2E to HBM4) 5.5.2 CoWoS and Advanced Packaging Capacity 5.5.3 Custom HBM and Co-Design Trends 5.5.4 AI Rack Bill of Materials 5.6 Emerging Computing Architectures 5.6.1 Photonic Computing 5.6.2 Neuromorphic Computing 5.6.3 Quantum Computing Outlook CHAPTER 6 - OUTLOOK 6.1 Market Outlook 2026-2040 6.2 Technology Outlook 2026-2040 6.3 Key Risks and Opportunities 6.4 Strategic Recommendations CHAPTER 7 - COMPANY PROFILES 399-480 (81 company profiles) A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to: For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/mwa29n About ResearchAndMarkets.com ResearchAndMarkets.com is the world's leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends.

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The 2025 data center computing and AI market, valued at $215 billion, is projected to experience rapid growth as it undergoes a structural transition through 2040. Amid the GPU dominance rivalry between NVIDIA and AMD, Big Tech companies like Google and AWS are accelerating the development of custom ASICs and ARM-based CPUs. Investors must pay attention to supply chain bottlenecks in TSMC's advanced nodes and SK Hynix's HBM, as well as changes in the next-generation processor ecosystem.

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DYAX 전담 분석

Driven by the proliferation of generative AI and LLMs, the data center AI market is expected to achieve long-term growth from $215 billion in 2025, with intensifying competition between GPUs and custom ASICs. In particular, supply constraints in advanced sub-5nm processes and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) act as key variables affecting supply and demand across the entire value chain.

The bull case is a surge in revenue for semiconductor chip and equipment makers due to explosive AI demand, while the bear case is margin pressure on specific vendors driven by supply chain bottlenecks and Big Tech's transition to proprietary chips. Key indicators to watch include foundry utilization rates, HBM shipments, and next-generation chip release schedules for each company.

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