Jensen Huang Admitted Nvidia's China Revenue Has Fallen to Zero. Here Is His $20 Billion Comeback Plan.

Yahoo Finance ·

Semiconductor chip export restrictions to China have cost Nvidia ( NVDA 1.86% ) billions in revenue. In a recent interview, CEO Jensen Huang admitted that Nvidia's chip market share in China has been wiped out. Speaking about Nvidia's share of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, Huang said, "Nvidia had ... 90-some-odd percent of the world's market share. Today in China, we have now dropped to zero." China is a large and important market for Nvidia, but in the near term, the company hasn't missed a beat. Its new Vera central processing unit (CPU) is opening up a $200 billion addressable market that completely dwarfs its previous chip revenue in China. Last year, the company earned nearly $20 billion in revenue from China (9% of its total revenue), but that revenue fell by roughly half year over year in the fiscal first quarter to approximately $4.5 billion. Huang's comment suggests revenue has continued to collapse since the end of the quarter. While the U.S. has approved some licenses for the H200 chip in China, Nvidia has yet to earn any revenue from it and has not included any China data center sales in its forward guidance. However, Nvidia is never sitting still. Its steady cadence of product releases is one of its competitive strengths. The GPU leader is now a leader in CPUs as well. During the last earnings call in May, management noted that it expects nearly $20 billion in CPU revenue this year. This completely replaces last year's revenue from China.

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NVDA's Jensen Huang acknowledged that semiconductor export controls have effectively reduced China revenue to zero. Last year NVDA's China revenue was about $20B, but it fell by half to about $4.5B in fiscal Q1 and appears to have been further curtailed since. NVDA plans to target the roughly $200B data-center CPU market with the Vera CPU and expects about $20B in CPU revenue this year to offset the China gap. In the short term, the loss of China GPU sales raises earnings and supply-chain risk, but in the long term a shift to a CPU-based ecosystem and expanding cloud demand is likely to be beneficial.

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