What a Kevin Warsh-Led Fed Could Mean for Mortgage REITs AGNC and Annaly Capital
Yahoo Finance ·
Kevin Warsh was recently installed as the head of the Federal Reserve. Although he was a loud proponent of cutting rates not too long ago, economic conditions have changed. The first Federal Reserve meeting of his tenure ended with no change to rates, with the target range remaining at 3.5% to 3.75%. That alone is an important piece of information for mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Annaly Capital ( NLY +1.62% ) and AGNC Investment ( AGNC +2.59% ) . But it isn't the only takeaway from the meeting you need to know about if you own these high-yield stocks, or are considering buying them. Warsh had long been a proponent of lower rates, a view that paired up with the president who nominated him to the position he now holds. That rates were held steady and not cut is an important statement about the Fed's independence. However, it also indicated that the economic situation in the United States had changed, with inflation worries rising materially. At this point, it looks more likely that rates will rise than fall. That's not great news for Annaly and AGNC. These two mortgage REITs own bond-like securities created by pooling mortgages. As with most bonds, rising interest rates cause the value of existing bonds to decline. That has to happen to keep the yield of the existing bonds competitive with the rates being offered by newly issued bonds. In the near term, a rising rate environment will likely lead to a reduction in tangible net book value per share for both Annaly and AGNC.
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