Elon Musk Says the Short Sellers Betting Against SpaceX Have a "Very Low" Survival Probability. Their Bets Now Equal 32% of the Float.

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"The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low," SpaceX ( SPCX +3.19% ) CEO Elon Musk wrote in a post on X last week. "I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true." About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That's roughly 32% of the company's publicly tradable shares, and about $25 billion in bearish bets. The position is growing fast, too: The short count is up from about 185 million shares just last week, and a month ago the estimate was around 40 million shares. The market took its time coming around. Shares rose about 3% on Tuesday to close at $123.46, snapping a seven-session losing streak. So are the short sellers really trapped? Or is a one-day bounce in a stock trading about 45% below its post-IPO high just short-term covering?

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Elon Musk warned that the survival probability of SpaceX short sellers is extremely low, expressing strong confidence in the company's valuation. According to S3 Partners, a short position of $25 billion has been established, accounting for 206 million shares, or 32% of the float. Although the stock recently rebounded by 3%, breaking a seven-day losing streak, surging short interest is maximizing stock volatility. Investors must closely monitor both the possibility of a short squeeze and valuation risks.

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