Is a Stock Market Crash Looming Under President Donald Trump? History Doesn't Mince Its Words...
Yahoo Finance ·
Statistically speaking, Wall Street has been thrilled to have President Donald Trump in the White House. Although some of the stock market's wildest oscillations have occurred during Trump's tenure, he's also overseen outsize annualized returns . During Trump's first, non-consecutive term (Jan. 20, 2017 – Jan. 20, 2021), the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI 0.09% ) , benchmark S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.05% ) , and growth-dominated Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC 0.24% ) surged 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since the start of his second term, it's been an encore performance, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gaining 19%, 23%, and 30%, respectively (as of June 23). President Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian. These outsize returns have been driven by: The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and the AI infrastructure build-out. The advent and early innings utility of quantum computers. Record S&P 500 share buybacks, thanks to Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which permanently lowered the peak marginal corporate income tax rate to 21%. Initial public offering (IPO)-mania, driven by Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). But when things seem too good to be true on Wall Street, history shows they often are .
AI 시장 분석
The article presents statistics showing that major indices — Dow, S&P 500·Nasdaq — rose sharply during President Trump's tenure. Factors driving the gains include AI advancement and infrastructure build-out, early commercial use of quantum computing, large-scale share buybacks following the 2017 tax cuts, and IPO enthusiasm such as around SpaceX. These factors disproportionately benefited sectors like technology, data centers, and aerospace. However, excessive gains have amplified valuation distortions and liquidity risks, increasing the likelihood of corrections or sharp declines; investors should prepare for continued short-term upside accompanied by heightened volatility.
상승 영향
- AI — AI and infrastructure expansion boosts demand for data centers, increases purchases of GPUs and accelerators, and raises software subscription revenues, materially improving technology companies' margins.
- Semiconductors — AI and quantum computing demand rapidly increases the need for high-performance chips and memory, stimulating semiconductor revenue and capital expenditure.
- Cloud/Data Centers — Large-scale AI infrastructure build-outs will consistently drive revenue for cloud providers and for data center equipment, power, and cooling solutions.
- Aerospace (Commercial Space) — IPO enthusiasm around companies like SpaceX channels capital into commercial space and satellite firms, providing funding and expansion opportunities that spur sector growth.
- Large-cap Stocks (Share Buybacks & Share — Tax cuts and large-scale share buybacks boost EPS of large listed companies, supporting share price increases and benefits tied to shareholder returns.
하락 영향
- U.S. Equity Market (S&P 500·Nasdaq) — Sustained historic highs can create broad overheating and abnormal valuations, markedly increasing the risk of short-term corrections and sharp declines.
- IPO & Startups — An IPO frenzy brings in many unprofitable companies, which can generate large downward pressure and explosive volatility when liquidity is withdrawn.
- Growth Stocks (Valuation Pressure) — Highly valued growth stocks are sensitive to rate hikes or earnings disappointments and face substantial risk of rapid price declines if investor sentiment deteriorates.
- Corporate Finance (Share Buybacks & Leve — Large-scale buybacks and tax cuts support short-term EPS but leave medium- to long-term vulnerabilities by reducing financial flexibility and increasing leverage.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
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