Oil Is Below $70, but the Federal Reserve's June Inflation Forecast Has an Unpleasant Surprise in Store for Wall Street

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Roughly four weeks ago, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI +0.59% ) , broad-based S&P 500 ( ^GSPC +1.18% ) , and innovation-powered Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC +2.07% ) all exploded to new highs. However, this rally doesn't tell the complete story on Wall Street at the moment. Aside from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out, no topic is garnering more attention than inflation . Although crude oil prices have come down in a big way over the last six weeks, the Federal Reserve's latest June inflation update has an unpleasant surprise in store for Wall Street . While President Donald Trump's tariffs are still providing modest upward pressure on select goods , the bulk of the inflationary pressure felt by consumers and businesses this year has come from the Trump-led Iran war. Four months ago, Trump gave the U.S. military the green light to attack Iran. The latter responded by effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels, thereby halting the daily flow of roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids. This represents the largest energy supply disruption in modern history .

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