The S&P 500 Returned 10% in the First Half of 2026. This Is Good News for What History Says Is Coming Next.
Yahoo Finance ·
The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.45% ) finished a strong first half of 2026 with a 9.6% return (and 10.2% on a total return basis). Historically, that's an unusually strong return for the first six months of a calendar return. And it could mean very good things for what the second half may have in store. Since 1990, this year represents the 12th time that the S&P 500 has returned at least 9% in the first half of the year. In those dozen instances, the median first-half return was 14.4%, with 2026's return actually being the smallest of the bunch. But history shows that the positive returns don't end there. In fact, in each one of the previous 11 instances, the S&P 500 was positive in the second half of the year as well. And not just positive -- strongly positive, as the table shows. The minimum second-half return in past cases was 7%, with the median landing at 9.8%. Over five years, second-half returns were at least 10%.
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