Apple's Foldable Could Lift iPhone Prices 11%, Redburn Says
Yahoo Finance ·
Apple's Foldable Could Lift iPhone Prices 11%, Redburn Says Renato Neves, CFA Tue, August 18, 2026 at 10:45 AM EDT 1 min read AAPL This article first appeared on GuruFocus . Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) drew an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn, which raised its price target to $400 from $260. Apple shares were up 0.63% premarket. Analysts led by Timm Schulze-Melander forecast 14 million units of the foldable iPhone Ultra in fiscal 2027, with only 4 million taken from existing iPhone sales, at a price of $2,199. That's an 83% premium to the iPhone 17 Pro Max, and Redburn expects it to lift iPhone average selling prices 11% by June 2027. Its iPhone revenue forecasts run 3% to 14% above consensus through fiscal 2030. Redburn says Apple Intelligence has disappointed, leaving Apple reliant on a custom Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) Gemini model to power Siri at a cost of roughly $1 billion a year, paid to the same company that sends Apple $27.5 billion annually for search placement. The suggested fix is adopting open-source models, possibly with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), whose Nemotron models Redburn says "matches closed, frontier model performance." It notes the Apple-Nvidia relationship has been difficult historically. Risks flagged include production delays, display crease visibility and hinge durability. A 2023 CNET survey found 64% of consumers didn't want a foldable.
AI 시장 분석
Rothschild & Co Redburn raised Apple's price target to $400, projecting that the release of a foldable iPhone will boost average selling prices by 11%. In fiscal 2027, 14 million foldable iPhones are expected to be sold at a price of $2,199, exceeding existing iPhone revenue forecasts. However, risk factors such as increased AI model costs, production delays, and hinge durability were also pointed out. Investors should closely examine the average selling price increase effect and supply chain risks brought by the new product launch.
상승 영향
- Apple — Driven by the high-priced launch of the foldable iPhone Ultra at $2,199, the average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 11% through June 2027, and revenue is expected to exceed consensus.
하락 영향
- Smartphone Components — Foldable phone display crease visibility and hinge durability issues, along with production delay risks, could increase cost burdens and earnings volatility for component suppliers.
DYAX 전담 분석
According to Redburn's analysis, the foldable iPhone Ultra will be launched at a high price of $2,199, serving as a direct driver to increase Apple's average selling price (ASP) by 11% through June 2027. While this contributes to Apple's earnings growth by expanding the sales proportion of high-margin products, cost generation from the adoption of Alphabet and Nvidia models and production delay risks could act as profitability pressure factors.
In the bullish scenario, successful establishment of the foldable phone will cause iPhone revenue to exceed consensus by up to 14%, driving stock price gains, while in the bearish scenario, high price resistance and production disruptions due to hinge durability issues could act as downward pressure on the stock. Indicators to watch are the actual shipment volume and average selling price trends for fiscal year 2027.
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