If Walmart doesn't raise its outlook, the stock will fall: CFRA Research

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If Walmart doesn't raise its outlook, the stock will fall: CFRA Research Yahoo Finance Video and Julie Hyman Wed, August 19, 2026 at 11:52 AM EDT WMT TGT AMZN Walmart ( WMT ) reports second quarter earnings on Thursday before the opening bell. CFRA Research senior vice president of equity research Arun Sundaram shares his expectations for the earnings print. I'm just curious, um, you know, if you're expecting any changes um for Walmart. I mean it's been sort of consistent here. Um, so I'm curious what you're looking for specifically in the report to to sort of give you more insight as to where they're going from here. Yeah, yeah, I mean like I said, the the bar for Walmart is is certainly much higher than than Target. You know, if if Walmart reports tomorrow, if if Walmart doesn't raise their full year outlook, I think the stock will will fall. Um the company uh tends to provide some pretty conservative guidance and um when they, you know, they they didn't raise guidance last quarter. Um so my expectation is they will raise guidance this quarter because I think they are tracking to that to above their guidance range. Um, but we'll have to see. I mean, the the the company does tend to issue, you know, uh somewhat of a cautious outlook um each quarter right now. We still have elevated fuel prices, you know, general uncertainty amongst the lower income consumer base, but um, but yeah, I mean compared to compared to Target, Walmart is a much more diversified business. They have Walmart US, they have Walmart International, they also have Sam's Club and and all three of those business units are are are doing phenomenal.

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As Walmart (WMT) prepares to release its Q2 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, CFRA Research has warned that the stock could fall if the company fails to raise its full-year guidance. Despite ongoing uncertainties among low-income consumers and the burden of high fuel costs, business segments including Walmart US, International, and Sam's Club are posting solid performances. Investors are focusing on whether Walmart will meet heightened market expectations and upgrade its annual outlook.

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While Walmart maintained conservative guidance last quarter, expectations are high that it will raise its earnings outlook this time based on strong momentum. If it falls short of these expectations and fails to raise guidance, a short-term stock price correction is deemed inevitable due to already elevated valuation pressures.

In the bullish scenario, an upward revision in guidance and proof of the diversified business model's success will sustain the stock's upward trend, whereas in the bearish scenario, concerns over a broader consumer goods slowdown could be highlighted. Key metrics to watch are the revision of annual guidelines in the Q2 earnings release and low-income consumer spending trends.

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