Dan Niles Says AI Infrastructure Rally Has ‘At Least A Year’ To Run — Names Intel His Favorite Chip Bet

Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-17

Dan Niles said cooling inflation and economic data support markets, and he expects the agentic AI boom to continue. He added that a potential $500 billion financing package, backed by Nvidia, could further fund AI infrastructure. He favors Intel, saying its $20 billion capital raise eased funding concerns despite recent gains. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, remains bullish on the artificial intelligence trade despite recent market volatility, and believes that the AI infrastructure spending boom still has room to run. While elevated Treasury yields, oil prices, geopolitical tensions and election risks could fuel further swings, Niles sees the longer-term AI investment story remaining intact. AI Investment Still Has MomentumIn a post on X, the portfolio manager said recent economic readings have been relatively supportive. Inflation measures and indicators such as consumer sentiment and retail activity have cooled, while a roughly 5% increase in oil prices pushed the Treasury yield curve higher without materially increasing expectations for a rate hike.“Looking forward, I continue to believe the impact of Agentic AI with the advent of OpenClaw on January 30th has at least a year to run”, said Niles. He said that token generation has multiplied several times since late January, more than compensating for falling token prices as open-weight models have gained traction. He estimates the combined annualized revenue pace of OpenAI and Anthropic has climbed from about $29 billion at the end of last year to roughly $100 billion. Cloud Giants Support The Capital CycleSpending by the largest hyperscalers has increased sharply. Niles points to stronger cloud growth at Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), alongside improving operating margins.“Capex from the Big6 hyperscalers accelerated from 84% y/y/ in CQ1 to 92% in CQ2 with forecasts for nearly 100% in Q3. But this is being supported by cloud revenue growth at the 3 Big Public cloud vendors.”Niles says a $500 billion financing arrangement, supported by up to $125 billion from Nvidia, could provide cheaper funding for AI infrastructure spending by companies outside the major hyperscalers. Risks Are Becoming Harder To IgnoreHowever, Niles cautions that long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year rate around 5.3%, while oil-market uncertainty could add pressure to consumers and markets.He also expects geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to remain a potential market complication. “Given large scale offensive US military actions are seemingly off the tablein favor of financial sanctions, probably driven by current election polls, I now believe Iran is likely to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage until past the US mid-terms.”Intel Stands Out As Funding Concerns Ease Niles says the easiest portion of the recent AI rebound may have passed. Several AI infrastructure stocks fell despite delivering strong earnings and outlooks, suggesting investors have become less willing to reward already-expensive shares.Still, he remains bullish overall. Niles expects value to continue moving toward the infrastructure underpinning AI, particularly cloud providers and semiconductor companies.Niles pointed to Intel Corp. (INTC), as his preferred semiconductor stock, and added that it 0.8% last week despite a $20 billion equity offering that could dilute shareholders by roughly 5%. He believes the capital raise removes a key funding concern, even after the stock’s 178% gain so far this year. So far this year, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) have gained 13% and 19% respectively, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has climbed 11%. Also See: TGT Stock Rises Overnight: Target Analysts Turn More Bullish, But The Turnaround Faces A Tough TestFor updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

AI 시장 분석

Dan Niles forecasted that the AI infrastructure investment rally will continue for at least another year, driven by stable inflation and the agentic AI boom. He analyzed that Big Tech's cloud capital expenditures (Capex) are showing strong growth, approaching nearly 100% year-over-year. However, he noted that investors need to remain cautious as potential volatility factors, such as high Treasury yields and geopolitical risks, still persist.

상승 영향

AI — Driven by the adoption of agentic AI and a surge in token generation, OpenAI and Anthropic's annualized revenue grew to $10 billion, driving infrastructure demand.
Semiconductors — Capex growth by the Big 6 hyperscalers is projected to approach 100% in Q3, alleviating financing concerns for semiconductor companies like Intel.

하락 영향

Real Estate — As the 30-year US Treasury yield remains around the 5.3% level, borrowing costs increase and valuation burdens are amplified.
Energy — Geopolitical tensions related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, along with an oil price rise of about 5%, act as inflationary pressures on consumers and the broader market.

DYAX 전담 분석

The annualized revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic has surged from about $2.9 billion at the beginning of the year to approximately $10 billion recently, strongly driving demand for AI infrastructure. Additionally, a $50 billion funding package that includes NVIDIA's support has the potential to accelerate infrastructure investments by small and medium-sized AI companies.

The bullish scenario is that continuous Capex expansion by Big Tech and accelerated AI monetization will drive semiconductor and cloud earnings, while the bearish scenario is valuation adjustments caused by pressure from 30-year Treasury yields reaching 5.3% and geopolitical risks such as the Strait of Hormuz. Investors should closely monitor Big Tech's cloud growth rates and the trend of Treasury yields.

AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

DYAX Investor Sentiment

Bullish (Long) 46% · Bearish (Short) 54%

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