Nomura Says AI Memory Demand Concerns Are Overdone as Supply Constraints Persist

Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-12

Investment Announcements Spark Oversupply Fears Nomura believes investor concerns over a potential slowdown in the artificial intelligence memory market have been exaggerated, arguing that recent investment plans by South Korean chipmakers and Meta’s (NASDAQ:META) cloud strategy do not signal weakening demand. The brokerage noted that South Korean memory manufacturers and related companies recently announced long-term investment programmes worth approximately 4.8 quadrillion won ($3.5 trillion), including around 3.7 quadrillion won dedicated specifically to memory production. The scale of these announcements has raised concerns among investors that the industry could eventually face excess supply. AI Demand Continues to Outpace Supply According to Nomura, the current market remains characterized by a significant shortage of memory products driven by rapid artificial intelligence adoption. The analysts said semiconductor manufacturers continue to prioritize higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leaving supplies of conventional DRAM and NAND products relatively tight. Nomura also emphasized that the newly announced investments are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on supply for several years because large semiconductor manufacturing complexes require lengthy construction and development. New Capacity Will Take Years to Arrive The brokerage highlighted the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster as an example of the industry’s extended investment timeline. Nomura estimates that the project, originally launched nine years ago, is unlikely to begin limited production before late 2027, illustrating that more than a decade can pass between initial investment decisions and commercially meaningful output. Meta’s Strategy Seen as Positive for AI Demand Nomura also rejected suggestions that Meta’s (NASDAQ:META) plans to commercialize excess computing capacity indicate softer demand for AI infrastructure. Instead, the brokerage believes offering unused data-center resources is a logical way for major technology companies to improve returns on invested capital while expanding access for customers such as OpenAI and Anthropic. The analysts added that lower computing costs could ultimately encourage broader adoption of artificial intelligence applications rather than reduce demand for AI hardware. Meta stock price

AI 시장 분석

Nomura analyzed that while the 4.8 trillion KRW investment plans by South Korean semiconductor firms raise concerns over oversupply, the actual impact on the market is limited as production will take years. AI demand still outpaces supply, and Meta's strategy of sharing computing resources is seen as accelerating ecosystem expansion rather than shrinking AI infrastructure demand. Investors should focus on the long-term AI memory shortage rather than short-term supply worries.

상승 영향

Semiconductors — With AI demand overwhelming supply, HBM-focused production strategies continue. Large-scale investments take years to yield actual output, making short-term oversupply concerns excessive.
AI — Meta's computing resource sharing strategy will lower AI infrastructure costs, driving broader adoption of AI applications and strengthening long-term demand for AI hardware.

DYAX 전담 분석

Nomura notes that despite the 4.8 trillion KRW investment plan, the lead time for facilities means supply shocks are unlikely in the near term. The current AI demand surge remains robust, supported by HBM technology.

Furthermore, Meta's resource sharing initiative is interpreted as a catalyst for broader AI adoption, which will ultimately sustain the demand for AI hardware and high-performance memory over the long horizon.

AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

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