QCOM Stock Eyes Worst Month In 7 Years: Analyst Says MSFT, GOOG May Be Behind Qualcomm’s AI Momentum

Yahoo Finance · 2026-06-26

Morningstar raised Qualcomm’s fair value estimate to $200 from $155 after its data-center investor event.Qualcomm now expects data-center revenue of $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029.Morningstar said two hyperscale customers may exceed $1 billion in fiscal 2027, possibly Microsoft and Google.Shares of Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) are poised to post their worst monthly run in years, but an analyst’s bull case suggests that the company’s AI data-center ambitions may already be gaining support from major cloud customers. QCOM stock has declined 18% so far this month, on track for its weakest week since April 2019. Shares are also on track to end the week in the red, with the stock down 2% in overnight trading heading into Friday. MSFT, GOOG May Boost QCOMMorningstar raised its fair value estimate for Qualcomm to $200 from $155 after the company hosted an investor event focused on its emerging data center chip business. The firm said Qualcomm’s data center revenue forecast was “better than we expected.” Qualcomm now expects $5 billion in data center revenue in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029.“Two hyperscale customers will exceed $1 billion in fiscal 2027, which intrigues us,” Morningstar said. The firm added that Qualcomm’s server CPU deal with Meta is “presumably not included,” since that business is expected to ramp up in the second half of 2028. “Microsoft and Google presented at the event, and perhaps these are the two immediate customers,” Morningstar said.Morningstar said Qualcomm’s forecast and signed deals suggest its AI initiatives will gain adoption with leading customers “ahead of our expectations.”Earlier this week, Qualcomm raised its fiscal 2029 non-handset revenue target to $40 billion as part of its broader diversification push. The company also targeted $10 billion in automotive revenue, more than $14 billion in IoT revenue and more than $15 billion in data center revenue by fiscal 2029. Qualcomm said handsets are expected to represent one-third of QCT revenue by then.QCOM Faces iPhone Share Loss The AI optimism comes as Qualcomm faces a major smartphone headwind from Apple’s in-house modem push. Morningstar called Apple’s move to displace Qualcomm a “looming headwind, but not a death blow,” citing the company’s expansion into automotive, PC, IoT and data center processors. Qualcomm expects its modem share within Apple’s iPhone 18 series to fall to just 20% in fiscal 2027. Morningstar estimates that would cut Qualcomm’s Apple chip revenue to about $2 billion, from more than $6 billion just two years earlier. Still, Morningstar expects data-center AI revenue to help offset the decline in Apple.Morningstar also cautioned that Qualcomm is not about to dethrone Nvidia: “We don’t anticipate it will usurp Nvidia’s wide moat or early-mover advantage in AI.” Morningstar said even a modest share of the massive AI computing market could support Qualcomm’s earnings growth. How Do Retail Traders Feel About QCOM?On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for QCOM was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.QCOM sentiment and message volume as of June 26| Source: StocktwitsOne user said, “$QCOM 40% growth at 22 PE? This is going to $500 by next month”https://stocktwits.com/BtcEthBch/message/657398820Another user said, “I believe in the new upcoming product mix such as the agents that will drive the future of telecommunications. I believe in the push into Agentic AI. This is a cash cow. It will not be held down forever.”https://stocktwits.com/Micron_MEGALODON/message/657414377QCOM stock has risen 34% over the past year. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next: SpaceX May Be Eyeing US Mobile Market – Even As Musk Says ‘Star’ Branding Has Gone Too Far

AI 시장 분석

Qualcomm sharply raised its data-center revenue outlook at a data-center investor event, and Morningstar raised its price target from $155 to $200. The company presented data-center revenue targets of $5B in fiscal 2027 and $15B in 2029, and suggested hyperscale customers such as MSFT·GOOG could contribute more than $1B by 2027. However, Apple’s shift to an in-house modem poses a risk of materially reduced iPhone-related revenue, and Qualcomm is unlikely to displace established AI leaders like NVDA quickly given their wide moat. As a result, non-handset areas (data centers, automotive, IoT) are positioned as growth drivers, but short-term stock and earnings volatility is likely to persist.

상승 영향

Data Centers/Server CPUs — Qualcomm’s upward revision to data-center revenue and the potential addition of large hyperscale customers should accelerate demand for server CPUs and adoption of AI workloads.
Cloud / Hyperscale (MSFT, GOOG) — Adoption by hyperscalers such as MSFT, GOOG can drive large-volume purchases and software optimization, expanding the Qualcomm ecosystem and enabling cost efficiencies.
Automotive — Qualcomm’s increased automotive revenue targets point to wider in-vehicle communications and compute adoption, helping diversify revenue and establish a long-term growth base.

하락 영향

Smartphone Modems/Mobile (Apple) — Apple’s transition to an in-house modem will sharply reduce Qualcomm’s modem share in iPhone, materially shrinking core mobile revenue in the near term.
Qualcomm Stock/Market Sentiment — Shares have dropped 18% this month, weakening short-term investor sentiment; uncertainty around results and guidance could add further selling pressure.
AI Infrastructure Competition (NVDA, etc — Nvidia’s early lead and wide moat make it difficult for Qualcomm to quickly capture the core AI infrastructure market, constraining potential profitability gains.

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