Blockchain Developers Scramble Against Quantum Threats Facing Bitcoin and Ethereum
Yahoo Finance ·
The rise of quantum computing poses a severe challenge to the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin and Ethereum. While traditional computers would take longer than the age of the universe to derive private keys from public addresses, a sufficiently powerful quantum machine utilizing Shor's algorithm could accomplish this in minutes. In March, Alphabet's Google Quantum AI published findings co-authored by researchers from Stanford and the Ethereum Foundation, indicating that roughly 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits—translating to under 500,000 physical qubits—could crack the security in 18 to 23 minutes. Although Google's Willow chip currently features 105 qubits and the timeline for a mature quantum threat remains debated between 2030 and 2040, decentralized network developers must proactively upgrade their cryptographic defenses since patching such expansive ledgers cannot be rushed overnight.
AI 시장 분석
The advancement of quantum computers is threatening the cryptographic security of blockchain ecosystems like Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to research by Google Quantum AI and others, just 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits could reverse-engineer public keys to steal private keys. While developers are rushing to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography, investors must watch out for volatility during this technical transition due to the nature of decentralized networks.
하락 영향
- Bitcoin — If quantum computers use Shor's algorithm to recover private keys from public keys in 18 to 23 minutes, core network security will collapse, creating a high risk of a sharp drop in asset value.
- Ethereum — The implementation of 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits could neutralize the encryption systems of Ethereum wallets and smart contracts, and due to the decentralized nature, delays in emergency patches could lead to massive withdrawals and price crashes.
DYAX 전담 분석
The rapid evolution of quantum computing technology carries structural risks that could directly undermine the encryption systems underlying blockchain networks. In particular, as hardware development accelerates—such as Google's Willow chip—if the scenario of quantum supremacy arriving before 2030 becomes a reality, it could act as a fatal downward pressure on the asset values of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Future scenarios diverge depending on development progress and the speed of quantum hardware advancement. If rapid quantum-resistant upgrades succeed, long-term stability will be secured, but delays in transition could trigger panic selling. As key indicators, the growth rate of logical qubits and the progress of hard forks and protocol upgrades by Ethereum and Bitcoin core developers must be closely monitored.
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